Neural Networks, Ordered Probit Models and Multiple Discriminants. Evaluating Risk Rating Forecasts of Local Governments in Mexico.

Credit risk ratings have become an important input in the process of improving transparency of public finances in local governments and also in the evaluation of credit quality of state and municipal governments in Mexico. Although rating agencies have recently been subjected to heavy criticism, credit ratings are indicators still widely used as a benchmark by analysts, regulators and banks monitoring financial performance of local governments in stable and volatile periods. In this work we compare and evaluate the performance of three forecasting methods frequently used in the literature estimating credit ratings: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Ordered Probit models (OP) and Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). We have also compared the performance of the three methods with two models, the first one being an extended model of 34 financial predictors and a second model restricted to only six factors, accounting for more than 80% of the data variability. Although ANN provides better performance within the training sample, OP and MDA are better choices for classifications in the testing sample respectively.Credit Risk Ratings, Ordered Probit Models, Artificial Neural Networks, Discriminant Analysis, Principal Components, Local Governments, Public Finance, Emerging Markets

Introducing the GED-Copula with an application to Financial Contagion in Latin America

While the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) has been used quite extensively in time series applications and has demonstrated a sound flexibility in the estimation process, there is so far no attempt to use this function in the construction of Copulas. Copulas are probability functions that link one multivariate distribution function to univariate distribution functions called marginals. These marginal functions are assumed to be continuous and to follow a uniform behaviour within [0,1]. In this paper we propose a new Copula function that, to our knowledge, has not been used in the literature of Copulas, until now: the bivariate GED-Copula. This function embeds other well-known distributions including the gaussian distribution. In order to assess the relative performance of this new Copula we investigate financial contagion in foreign exchange, stocks, bonds and sovereign debt markets in Latin America. Standard decision criteria provides strong evidence in favour of the GED-Copula against other Elliptical and Arquimidean alternatives

Varianza condicional de medias móviles no-lineales.

We present a new heteroskedastic conditional variance model using NonLinear Moving Average as the basis for this specification [NLMACH(q)]. The typical problem of this class of models-i.e., noninvertibility—is solved by means of an intuitive parametric restriction; this allows us to use Maximum Likelihood as the estimation procedure. The statistical properties of the new model are both simple and attractive for empirical purposes in finance: a natural fat-tailed distribution stands out. The Autocorrelation Function of the squared process allows us for identification of the number of lags to be included in the new specification. In addition, we present several Monte Carlo experiments where the properties of the model using finite samples are exhibited. Finally, an empirical application using exchange rates and capital market bonds is shown.Conditionally Heteroskedastic Models, NLMACH(q), Volatility, Fat-tailed Distributions

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Megaproyectos urbanos y productivos. Impactos socio-territoriales

El desarrollo de megaproyectos productivos trae consigo oportunidades para el crecimiento económico, la generación de empleos y el desarrollo regional. No obstante, en la actualidad, los grandes temas como la expansión urbana, el desarrollo industrial, las cementeras, la minería, el uso intensivo del agua y demás recursos naturales, preocupan a las comunidades por los impactos generados y porque en lo general, no consideran la racionalidad y responsabilidad ambiental y social hacia el entorno. En este contexto son diversos los estudios científicos que, en el marco de la política de económica imperante, intentan posicionarse como alternativas a proyectos económicos que confrontan los intereses particulares y comunitarios y que afectan la salud humana y ambiental. Megaproyectos urbanos y productivos. Impactos socio-territoriales, reúne veinticinco textos académicos sobre las afectaciones que éstos emprendimientos tienen para la sociedad y el entorno. Los temas expuestos recogen experiencias en el desarrollo urbano, industrial, turístico, portuario y aeroportuario, entre otros. Así mismo se retoman temas como la ética, la dialéctica, la política y la economía y su relación en el emprendimiento de megaproyectos. La búsqueda de esquemas productivos racionales y responsables con el entorno, que reivindiquen el derecho de las comunidades a un medio ambiente sano, a la preservación del territorio y sus recursos y de las formas de vida tradicionales, son los referentes para la realización del presente libro. Como elemento central se concibe el territorio como contenedor de identidad y vida, siendo preocupación y tema de estudio de la comunidad académica, las organizaciones de la sociedad civil y las redes de activistas organizados.UAEM, CONACyT, se

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Índice de Paridad Poder de Compra Nutricional: comparación de los precios calóricos entre dietas habituales y saludables Index of Nutritional Purchasing Power Parity: comparison of caloric costs of a healthy versus an unhealthy diet

OBJETIVO: Validar el Índice de Paridad Poder de Compra Nutricional (Nut3-CiO) como un instrumento que permite comparar los precios calóricos de una dieta saludable versus una dieta no saludable entre regiones o ciudades de un país a través del tiempo. MÉTODOS: Se construyeron índices de precios calóricos y se empleó la "ley de un solo precio" para derivar el índice Nut3-CiO. Se obtuvieron tasas de inflación calóricas sobre las que se realizó estadística descriptiva básica. El Nut3-CiO se aplicó a las principales ciudades de México durante el período enero de 1996 a diciembre 2010. RESULTADOS: El comportamiento estadístico del Nut3-CiO reveló que en las ciudades de México los productos de la dieta habitual son más baratos que los productos de la dieta saludable. Se observó un comportamiento cíclico del índice, una correlación alta entre la inflación de la dieta habitual y la inflación de la canasta básica, y una alta persistencia de los precios. CONCLUSIONES: El índice Nut3-CiO permite comparar periódicamente el diferencial de precios de dos tipos de dietas -habituales y saludables- entre las ciudades de un mismo país. Este instrumento podría ayudar a las autoridades de salud a identificar las ciudades en donde resulta más -o menos- fácil para los consumidores acceder a una dieta habitual o saludable en términos de costo. Asimismo, hace posible estimar el porcentaje de ajuste que deberían tener los precios relativos en cada ciudad para alcanzar los niveles de paridad poder de compra nutricional.<br>OBJECTIVE: Develop the Index of Nutritional Purchasing Power Parity (Nut3-CiO) as an instrument to compare the caloric costs of a healthy versus an unhealthy diet between regions or cities in a country over time. METHODS: Indices of caloric prices were constructed and the "law of one price" was used to derive the Nut3-CiO index. Caloric inflation rates were obtained using basic descriptive statistics. The Nut3-CiO was applied in the major cities of Mexico during the period from January 1996 to December 2010. RESULTS: The statistical behavior of the Nut3-CiO revealed that, in Mexican cities, products for a typical diet are less expensive than products for a healthy diet. The findings showed a cyclical behavior to the index, a high correlation between inflation for the typical diet and inflation for the market basket, and a high persistence of prices. CONCLUSIONS: The Nut3-CiO index makes it possible to periodically compare the price differential of two types of diets-typical and healthy-between cities in a single country. This instrument could help health authorities identify the cities where it is easier or more difficult for consumers to access a typical or healthy diet in terms of cost. Furthermore, it makes it possible to estimate the percentage adjustment necessary in each city to attain levels of nutritional purchasing power parity

¿Pueden las transferencias federales afectar el esfuerzo fiscal, la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas de los gobiernos locales? México 2003-2013

Antecedentes: La segunda generación de modelos de federalismo fiscal (SGFF) advierte que la dependencia fiscal puede incitar la pereza de los gobiernos locales y estancar la generación de ingresos propios; además, puede promover la corrupción y una menor rendición de cuentas (Oates, 2005). Este trabajo somete a prueba la hipótesis de sacrificio de la rendición de cuentas y de la transparencia por una mayor interdependencia fiscal de los gobiernos subnacionales en México (Gamkhar y Shah, 2007).Metodología: Estimamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos de datos panel (VARP) que permite examinar la interrelación dinámica de las variables para el periodo de 2003 a 2013.Resultados: Encontramos evidencia de la causalidad del entorno fiscal federal sobre el esfuerzo fiscal, la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas, de acuerdo con el nivel de desarrollo de las entidades federativas.Conclusiones: Los resultados aportan evidencia de que mayores transferencias se asocian con mayor pereza recaudatoria, menor transparencia y mayor rendición financiera de cuentas. De la misma manera, un mayor desarrollo económico revela efectos dinámicos positivos del esfuerzo fiscal hacia la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas

Indicadores de desempeño, presión y vulnerabilidad de las finanzas públicas estatales en México

La vulnerabilidad y presión de los sistemas financieros es un tema latente en la práctica y estudio de la economía a la luz de la crisis reciente. Este artículo define la presión financiera de los gobiernos estatales como aquella ejercida por el desequilibrio financiero, el incremento del gasto corriente, la falta de inversión, la acumulación excesiva de deuda pública y su servicio. A partir de un análisis multivariado en este artículo se desarrolla seis índices que miden en su conjunto la presión en las finanzas públicas estatales en México de 2001 a 2007. Estos índices, no correlacionados entre sí, captan más de 80% de la variabilidad estadística observada en las finanzas públicas estatales en México y muestran la posición relativa de cada entidad federativa contra el resto de los estados. Entre otros resultados se encuentran factores de finanzas públicas que confirman la existencia de una correspondencia (trade-off) entre inversión pública y superávit y entre el ahorro y el gasto ordinario. El conjunto de indicadores obtenido en este artículo puede ser usado por el funcionario local para comparar la posición relativa de su entidad respecto a otros estados y por el regulador/supervisor para determinar la presión financiera que experimentan los gobiernos subsoberanos en México

¿Pueden las transferencias federales afectar el esfuerzo fiscal, la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas de los gobiernos locales? México 2003-2013

Antecedentes: La segunda generación de modelos de federalismo fiscal (SGFF) advierte que la dependencia fiscal puede incitar la pereza de los gobiernos locales y estancar la generación de ingresos propios; además, puede promover la corrupción y una menor rendición de cuentas (Oates, 2005). Este trabajo somete a prueba la hipótesis de sacrificio de la rendición de cuentas y de la transparencia por una mayor interdependencia fiscal de los gobiernos subnacionales en México (Gamkhar y Shah, 2007).Metodología: Estimamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos de datos panel (VARP) que permite examinar la interrelación dinámica de las variables para el periodo de 2003 a 2013.Resultados: Encontramos evidencia de la causalidad del entorno fiscal federal sobre el esfuerzo fiscal, la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas, de acuerdo con el nivel de desarrollo de las entidades federativas.Conclusiones: Los resultados aportan evidencia de que mayores transferencias se asocian con mayor pereza recaudatoria, menor transparencia y mayor rendición financiera de cuentas. De la misma manera, un mayor desarrollo económico revela efectos dinámicos positivos del esfuerzo fiscal hacia la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas